My Take: GOP Presidential Race

What do the Clint Eastwood Super Bowl halftime ad, Punch-Out, the economy and evangelical politics have in common? They all help predict where this goofy presidential election is going.

Consider the following: Rick Santorum takes three middle-American states in Tuesday's primary. Now the national media is pushing the reset button on the race for the GOP nomination.

Here's my take:

"It's the Economy, Stupid" Still Rings True
Barring a new economic downturn (all eyes on Europe) or a terrorist attack (God forbid), Barrack Obama seems poised for re-election. It really is about the economy and not much else. If we continue to see the steady creation of jobs, lower unemployment (7.9 is a magic number) and the stock market move side ways, the POTUS can make a compelling case that things are better. But he's not a shoe-in for re-election.

Moderate Mitt: The Ironic Candidate
Rick Santorum will not be the GOP nominee. Ron Paul never had a chance. Newt? Nah! The party is controlled by the right-wing, but a far right candidate is not likely electable by a public that seems to prefer a more moderate choice.

Enter Mitt Romney. He has money, a highly organized campaign, and Newt is right: he's a moderate from New England. Working against Romney: the evangelical wing of the GOP has heartburn about his Mormon background. Evangelical's consider Mormonism a cult, not a legit religion. That may seem harsh to some, but that's the case in 2012. The evangelical's are working night and day to keep Romney out of the White House.

The irony here is that deeply held spiritual beliefs may trump (no pun intended) faithful evangelicals' willingness to pull the lever for the best political candidate to challenge for the White House. It's very possible many evangelicals will choose to keep Obama in the White House rather than allow a Mormon to occupy the Oval Office. Many will stay on the sidelines if Mitt gets the nomination, washing their hands like Pontius Pilate.

Keep in mind, many of these evangelicals were swayed to vote for Obama in 2008. They gambled, reasoning, "Give this guy a try and if it doesn't work out, we'll go back to the GOP in 2012." But with Mitt as the nominee, many may be second guessing that move now.

Extra Innings May Not Be All That Bad for the GOP
Some may think an extended primary season between Romney and the challenger-of-the-month may hurt his chances in the Fall. But it may not be as bad as many speculate. With every challenge from the right that Romney fights off, he is better positioned in the eyes of the broader electorate as a moderate come the General Election. That is a not necessarily a bad thing.

It could be that the 20 plus debates and the Punch-Out (think Nintendo)-like path to the nomination may actually help position Romney as a viable moderate to replace Obama in the White House among moderate Republicans and non-evangelical independents who feel betrayed by the vote they cast for BHO in 2008. It may even be enough to offset the conservative evangelicals who will likely be without a candidate if Romney does get the nod.

Reality Check?
But alas, and once again, if the economy continues to improve it is all for naught.

Many folks might believe that Clint Eastwood's Super Bowl commercial is spot on-and if that is the case, Barack Obama can kick his feet up and settle in for four more years.

What do you think?